‘I Voted’ stickers line the ballot scanning machines at a polling station at JCC Harlem on Election Day. (Credit: Megha Gupta)
New York City experienced what some are calling a “red shift” during the 2024 presidential election, raising questions on how mayoral candidates will campaign ahead of the June primary.
New York City has had mostly Democratic mayors in recent years with the exception of Rudy Giuliani in 1994 and Michael Bloomberg in 2002. Mayor Eric Adams is running for reelection, despite his indictment on bribery and campaign finance offenses. Five other Democrats have already announced their candidacies and other potential challengers are expected to enter a primary race that is shaping up to be consequential for the Democratic party following Republican gains in New York City. President-elect Donald Trump grew his support across all five boroughs from 22.69% in 2020 to 30.45% in 2024, leaving Republican club leaders enthusiastic about their 2025 chances while Democrats debate how to move forward.
“The left in the city is fractured,” said Allen Roskoff, founder of the Jim Owles Liberal Democratic Club. “Each organization does its own thing. Some organizations don’t want to work with other organizations, and it’s going to split the left vote. It endangers us.”
Vice President Kamala Harris lost 573,619 votes from President Joe Biden’s 2,321,759 in 2020, while Trump gained 94,612 votes in the city. With 465,088 fewer New Yorkers voting in 2024, Democratic organization leaders attribute the “red shift” to low turnout.
“Trump did get more votes than last time,” said Reshma Patel, Democratic district leader for the New York 74th Assembly District. “But the Democrats got a lot less votes, and that was because people didn’t show up. If you look at Manhattan, if you look at north Brooklyn. If you look at Long Island City, Astoria and those neighborhoods, they just had much lower turnout.”
Andrew Epstein, director of communications for Assemblymember Zoran Mamdani’s mayoral campaign, said that although it’s important to acknowledge the additional voters Trump won over, Democrats must focus on the votes they lost as they look ahead to the primaries. Mamdani is the latest Democratic contender to enter the race and is considered to be the most progressive candidate of the five.
Ballot boxes line the gym floor at a polling station at Wadleigh High School in Harlem on Election Day. (Credit: Megha Gupta)
“I think the even bigger story in New York is how many people didn’t vote at all,” said Epstein. “That has a number of factors, but some of them speak directly to the issues we’re talking about in this campaign. I think we will be pretty relentlessly focused on the cost of living crisis in a way that I hope will be relevant to those same working class voters.”
Other candidates running alongside Mamdani include former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who ran against Adams in 2021, and current Comptroller Brand Lander, who is running on a progressive platform. State Sen. Jessica Ramos, a left-leaning elected official from Queens, and Zellnor Myrie, a left-leaning state senator from Brooklyn, are also in the mix. Myrie’s, Stringer’s, and Adams’ campaigns did not respond to requests for comment, while Ramos’ and Lander’ sent out statements addressing Trump’s win.
Election results revealed that the Democrats lost key votes in specific demographics like Asian American and low income neighborhoods across the city, allowing the conservative voting base to grow, especially in immigrant communities.
Michael Lange, a writer and former field director for Harlem City Councilmember Yusef Salaam, argues that Democratic candidates need to take a more moderate campaign approach rather than a progressive one in order to meet the concerns of the voters in neighborhoods Harris lost.
“I think that a lot of that [shift] is relating to fear of crime but also just the failure of Democratic urban governance particularly under Eric Adams, and to a lesser extent, Kathy Hochul,” said Lange. “There will certainly be an instinct for candidates to moderate themselves further. There are real avenues to Democrats clawing back some of that support and looking to rebuild trust in those neighborhoods.”
Adams, a moderate Democrat who was a registered Republican for a brief time more than two decades ago, made waves across the city in September following his indictment on several federal corruption charges. A Marist College poll revealed that 69% of New Yorkers thought he should resign.
“People will vote for the mayor that shows competency and that shows results,” said Carlos Calzadila, president of the Brooklyn Democrats. “I think it’s not going to come down to progressive or moderate. It’s going to come down to who can prove that they get things done and know how to talk about it.”
With Democrats divided, Republican clubs in the city, such as Middle Village Republican Club and Rockaway Republican Club, are united in their belief that a Republican can win the 2025 election after a decade of Democratic mayors in City Hall.
“Quality of life has deteriorated in the city to such an extent that a Republican can certainly become mayor again,” said Craig Caruana, president of the Middle Village Republican Club. “No elected official in New York or anywhere in the country is running on the status quo or promising more of the same. Kamala Harris tried and was soundly defeated. That alone tells you anything is possible in the next Mayoral election.”
Billionaire Michael Bloomberg was the last New York City mayor elected as a Republican. His third and last term ended in 2013.
About the author(s)
Megha Gupta
Megha Gupta is a multimedia journalist based in New York City covering politics, culture, and sports. She is pursuing a dual M.S. in Journalism and MIA at Columbia University.