New York City Comptroller Brad Lander leads a briefing on May 8. (Credit: Ana Castelain)
New York City’s appeal as an international tourist destination is waning. From hesitant European travelers to canceled trips by Canadians, one of the most vital industries to the five boroughs – tourism – is heading for a slump.
The city predicts tourist visits to drop 4.5% to about 64 million this year, according to a revised forecast released in May by its Tourism and Conventions office. Leading that decline will be an expected 6.2% drop in foreign visitors to New York, 12.1 million.
Tourism Economics, a Wayne, Pa.-based research group, revised its 2025 international visitors forecast for New York City from 9% growth to a 6% decline and now expects full recovery from COVID-19 to be delayed until 2029 – a full decade after the 2019 peak.
Global unease over President Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and immigration, including detainments of foreign travelers, are casting a shadow over the city.
“International tourism still has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels,” New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, a candidate for mayor, said at a press briefing on May 8. “There’s every reason to believe that Trump’s policies are keeping it repressed. And people, for a range of reasons, are less likely to come.”
The decline in international visits has a disproportionate impact on the local economy. Foreign travelers, who historically account for 20% of New York’s tourists, spend twice as much and stay longer than domestic visitors to the city. A 25% decline in international tourism this year would likely cost the five boroughs $6 billion in lost revenue, plus an additional loss of $3 billion in “multiplier” effect spending, according to a report by the comptroller’s office in April.
The hospitality trade had hoped 2025 would mark a full rebound of foreign visitors from pre-pandemic levels. Now, industry leaders are focused on damage control. So far, hotel occupancy rates have held steady, according to Vijay Dandapani, president and CEO of the Hotel Association of New York City.
“If you’re flat, that means you’re already behind in terms of profitability,” he said. “We hope 2026 will be positive, barring any uncertainty nobody can predict.”
Global sentiment toward the U.S. generally is dimming, driven by divisive rhetoric, tariff announcements, reports of detainments and travel restrictions that include new visa regulations, gender requirements on passports and social media rules.
“The policy uncertainty is having an effect on consumers already in terms of how they feel,” said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. He cited the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment, which dropped almost 30% from January to May.
Sacks also pointed to data from the U.S. Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office showing the number of Canadians traveling by car across the border falling 32% in March after a 23% drop in February compared to those months in 2024.
Visitor entries of all types at the northern U.S. border fell 18% in March, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
As of March, Canadian bookings to the U.S. for the summer by the Official Airline Guide were down 70% from a year earlier.
“In the last 60 days, we have had several advisories for colleges, universities and high schools to not book trips to the United States,” said Charmaine Singh, president and CEO of Reach Global Marketing, a full-service Canadian marketing agency. “We’re managing a series of cancellations.”
New York City may benefit from one emerging trend. A survey of 1,000 U.S. adults in early April by MMGY Global, a travel industry marketing company, found that 29% of the group intended to shift their travel plans from an international destination to a domestic one.
“New York stands to benefit from some of that regional travel,” Sacks, of Tourism Economics, said. A complete recovery to pre-pandemic levels in domestic travel to the city is expected by 2026.
The necessity to adapt
To spur tourism, the hotel industry is lobbying for a short-term fix: cutting the hotel occupancy tax from 5.875% to 3%. Supporters of the tax cut say it would sway budget-conscious travelers and meeting planners who might otherwise pick lower-tax destinations.
At stake are jobs and the long-term health of one of New York’s core economic engines. Tourism generated $68 billion in 2023, according to the city. Last year, travelers spent $13 billion on hotel rooms alone. As of December, the city’s tourism-driven industries accounted for 287,700 jobs.
“The cost of operating a hotel is the highest in the country, and except for COVID, the hotel industry never laid off people,” Dandapani, of the hotel association, said. “So, implications are huge because less business means less ability to hire.”
Tourism industry leaders are turning to alternative strategies to maintain momentum. The sector is leaning into innovative offerings – culinary experiences, influencer-led campaigns and entertainment-inspired travels.
“Use them and use them appropriately,” said Andrew van der Feltz, senior director of Expedia, a travel media network.
A recent Expedia survey found that two-thirds of travelers were influenced by movies and TV shows in choosing destinations. Sporting events like the 2026 FIFA World Cup may also give a boost to New York, which is one of the host cities.
“Sports and entertainment continue to show no borders,” said Singh of Reach Global Marketing.
The city should also refocus on luxury and business travelers, say some industry professionals.
“The Chinese market is evolving,” said Colin Wang, who specializes in the China market. “Chinese people traveling to the U.S. are now the ones with a higher income, which is natural, as US-China travel expenses increased. The most important thing is to adapt to the changing Chinese consumers.”
About the author(s)
Ana Castelain is a French reporter and M.S. student at Columbia Journalism School, covering business and social issues.