Where Are the Republican Mayoral Candidates?

With a federal indictment, an upcoming trial on corruption charges, and multiple serious challengers declared for this June’s Democratic primary, New York City Mayor Eric Adams is facing an uphill battle for reelection. 

 

Just 27 percent of New Yorkers currently approve of Adams’ mayoralty – the lowest since records began in 1996, according to a Dec. 6th Quinnipiac University poll. In November the Republican Party posted their strongest performance in the city since Ronald Reagan won office, with 30 percent of the vote. 

 

Next November’s mayoral election represents an opportunity for the Republican Party to put those gains into practice and take back the mayor’s office. So far just two candidates have declared — neither of whom appear to be serious contenders. Neither Darren Aquino nor David Rem have reported any donations since announcing their runs. 

 

So why aren’t more Republicans mounting a competitive challenge? 

 

It’s not like New York City voters haven’t elected Republican mayors in recent history. Between 1994 and 2014 mayors Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg locked Democrats out of the mayor’s office for 20 years uninterrupted. 

 

But Trump’s election in 2016 has had knock-on effects in the city and diminished support for the party, some voters say. 

 

“Republicans have basically given up running,” said Michael Lange, a local organizer

 

“The party that got those men elected is not the party of today,” agreed Juan Carlos Polanco, former president of the New York City Board of Elections and former registered Republican. “The Republican Party, nationally, became increasingly conservative,” he added, “so they lost support here.”  

 

And New York City’s mayoral election is a numbers game. At the last count of registered voters by the New York State Board of Elections in November 2024, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by a ratio of 6-to-1. 

 

“It’s tough to be a Republican in New York City,” said Polanco. “The numbers are very lopsided.” 

 

It’s a different story in New York State, where the registration gap is just 2-to-1 in favor of Democrats. More registered Republicans means more small-dollar donations, resulting in more money to run competitive campaigns. 

 

Counties featuring better prospects for Republican candidates, such as Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island, each registered more than $1 million in contributions to the New York Republican State Committee in the last two years. 

 

Further upstate, Republican Congressman Mike Lawler’s reelection campaign for NY-17, which includes Rockland County and Putnam counties, raised more than $8 million. Lawler is angling for the governor’s mansion in Albany, as Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul faces low approval ratings before the election in 2026. 

 

Within the city, Republican fundraising in much weaker. The Bronx Republican Party had reported $0 raised by Sept. 30 this year, having spent only $633 in the last two years. Its equivalent Democratic organization raised $12,114 and spent $4,696 in the same period. 

 

Weak party infrastructure within the city means Republicans struggle at every stage of the electoral process – just six of the city council’s 51 seats are occupied by Republicans. The rest are Democrats. 

 

And this weakness includes the mayoral election, starting with the nominating petition to get on the primary ballot. 

 

For a Democratic candidate who is able to tap the 3,114,785 registered and active Democratic voters across the five boroughs, getting the 3,750 signatures needed to appear on that first ballot in June is easy. 

 

“Any serious mayoral campaign will get that many times over,” said Lange, who has worked on petitioning campaigns for state assembly candidates. By contrast, he said, “Republican banks are really thin.” 

 

Bo Dietl said he ran into this exact issue when he challenged Democratic mayor Bill de Blasio in 2017. 

 

“If [Democrats] need more votes, they know where to find them. Republicans and independents don’t have that here,” he said. “They [Democrats] have all these workers that can pull the people out to sign and vote.” 

 

It’s the Democrats’ muscular organization in the city – or the Republicans’ lack of it – that gives them the upper hand. 

 

The New York City Republican party is “a bunch of do-nothings who are basically professional losers,” said Ian McMath, a NYC Young Republican Club executive who has worked with the committee. 

 

“They hold the positions and enjoy the title,” he said, “but make zero effort in actually running competitive campaigns.”

 

None of the five Republican Party county committees in New York City responded to requests for comment. 

 

Lange agreed that Republican success could not be credited to the city’s Republican Party. Last November’s better-than-expected results, he suggested, came “not from a ton of on-the-ground work that’s being done, but a confluence of macro conditions, nationally,” such as the asylum seeker crisis New York City experienced last summer. 

 

And even when a pro-Trump candidate with potential support does run, the party cannot take advantage of those macro conditions or financially support them to cross the line: Adams spent three times as much money as Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa in the 2021 race.

 

It’s Adams that might represent the best chances for the Republican Party to take back the mayor’s office. Adams registered as a Republican in 1997 before switching back to the Democrats in 2001, citing his upset at Democratic leadership as the reason for his back-and-forth. 

 

But with a looming corruption trial, a return to the Republican Party might be on the cards. Trump has previously drawn similarities between his and Adams’s “persecution” by federal authorities, and the mayor was given a seat at the president’s inauguration. Commentators such as Howard Wolfson, a political strategist to former NYC mayor Cuomo, was recently quoted in Vanity Fair suggesting that Adams “is completely focused on staying out of jail.” One way to escape prosecution is a pardon from Trump. 

 

As for current Republican candidates in New York City, the party is stuck between a Trump-supporting voter base and an infrastructure too weak to take advantage of those favorable conditions. 

 

“Threading the line is going to be very difficult,” said Polanco. 

 

It appears few candidates want to try.